Cleveland versus Golden State.
LeBron versus Steph. In the words of Jeezy, “once again it’s on.” Last year,
LeBron carried the shorthanded Cavs to 6 games while averaging 35.8 points,
13.3 rebounds & 8.8 assists per game. Despite that grand effort, a shoulder
injury in the 1st round suffered by Kevin Love and a fracture to
Kyrie Irving’s kneecap in game 1 of the Finals prevented the Cavs from being on
the winning side holding up the Larry O’Brien trophy. Few people remember but
the Warriors found themselves down 2-1 in the series after winning game 1 in
overtime, losing game 2 in overtime by 2 points & losing game 3 by 5. Starting
with game 4, head coach Steve Kerr made a lineup change, inserting Andre Iguodala
into the starting lineup & moving Draymond Green to the center
position. Those moves effectively
flipped the momentum toward Golden State as they went on to win the next two
games by double digits and closed out game 6 on the road. Steph Curry averaged
26 points a game, Iggy was named Finals MVP and Golden State won their first
NBA title in 40 years.
Fast
forward one year and these two teams are set for a rematch starting tomorrow
night. For Cleveland fans that wanted to see their team back in the Finals and
others that doubted the legitimacy of the Warrior’s win because of the injuries
Cleveland suffered, they got what they wanted. Between a locked & loaded,
and most importantly, healthy Cavs team that have been shooting lights out so
far in the playoffs and a Warriors team fresh off an amazing comeback against the
Thunder, I’m expecting a long & exciting series without the excuses of last
year. As both teams return pretty much the same lineups from last year, the
only major difference in this series is Tyronn Lue, who was hired in January
after the firing of David Blatt, undeserved or not.
Road to the
Finals
The Warriors started off the
regular season with 24 straight wins before losing their first game in December
against Milwaukee after a double-overtime bout against Boston the night before.
1996 Chicago Bulls & Michael Jordan comparisons aside, they went on to
break their record for most wins in a season and finished with a 73-9 record.
Golden State then beat Houston 4 games to 1 in the 1st round, got
past Portland 4 games to 1, and came back from down 1-3 to defeat Oklahoma
City.
Cleveland
started 30-11 before David Blatt got fired. Coach Lue kept the momentum going
as they finished 57-25 with the #1 seed. The Cavaliers are arguably the hottest
team in the playoffs after sweeping Detroit & Atlanta in the first two
rounds while finishing Toronto in 6 games in the conference semifinals. They
found their stroke from the 3 point line and rode it all the way to the Finals.
The Warriors took both regular season matchups;
a low scoring 89-83 Christmas day game and 132-98 blowout on January 18. Their
defense in that game was put under a microscope & exposed, blamed on a
combination of bad effort, bad communication & poor positioning,
particularly from Love & Irving. But as everybody knows, the regular season
and the playoffs are two completely different animals.
Matchups
The Cavaliers should come
in with the same starting lineup that got them here; Kyrie & J.R. in the
backcourt with Bron, Love & Thompson in the frontcourt. The Warriors will
have snipers Steph & Klay, with Bogut, Green & Barnes or Iggy on the
backend. Based on last year’s results, it might be smarter for Iggy to start. Both
teams are evenly matched with secret weapons on the bench. I know it seems
obvious, but this series will simply come down to which team is shooting
better. We’ve seen those rare occasions where Golden State just couldn’t get
the ball in from the 3-point line and that was the case in the majority of
their losses this season. Same goes for the Cavs as they turn into a
low-effort, stale, predictable, 3-point jacking team when they can’t figure
things out on offense. So it all comes down to who can score consistently, from
the paint & out on the perimeter. Another key factor is defense,
specifically Kyrie & J.R. on the perimeter against Steph & Klay, and
Kevin Love against Draymond Green. Kyrie is known for his poor footwork (not being able to stay in front of his defender) &
bad play against the pick & roll while J.R. doesn’t put forth the effort
you would like. Love on the other hand has to work on getting to the right
spots on the court to properly defend on & off the ball but he has never
been known as a defensive specialist.
I don’t think anybody’s expecting
the Cavs to hold Steph to 17 points or the Warriors to hold Bron to 15. The key
for Cleveland is to limit the 3’s from Steph & Klay & clog up the
passing lanes that will lead to turnovers and easy fast break points. Golden
State, on the other hand, has to get big in the paint defensively and on the
glass. They need to force Bron & Kyrie out of driving into the paint for
easy layups & consistently make them settle for jump shots, while also
finishing defensive stands with rebounds, something they did a poor job of
doing against the Thunder. Weapons off the bench for Golden State include
Marreese Speights who seems to always come through with a clutch 3, and Shaun
Livingston. Channing Frye, Iman Shumpert & Matthew Dellavedova should be
key contributors in this series for Cleveland. We haven’t seen Delly much in
the playoffs but it will be interesting to see if he can earn extra playing
time with his impressive defense on Steph in last year’s Finals.
Remember, Klay was shooting less than spectacular and we didn't even get MVP Steph for a majority of the Finals last year. What won it for them was Iggy rotating into the
starting lineup, Draymond Green’s all-around game on both ends of the court, and role players that were
able to step it up when Steph & Klay were in a slump. Cleveland would be smart
to learn from past losses & realize that they cannot depend on the big 3 to
carry them for the whole series. All in all, I predict the Golden State
Warriors to beat the Cavaliers in 7 games for their second straight championship.
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